While the government is aiming for one million ICT workers in the Netherlands by 2030, new research by labor market data specialist Intelligence Group and HR-tech service provider HeadFirst Group suggests that this goal is far out of reach. Even in a scenario of explosive growth, the Netherlands would have a maximum of 862,000 ICT workers by 2030. In more likely scenarios, the number is much lower still: between 628,000 and 783,000. Marion van Happen, CEO at HeadFirst Group nuances, "We don't have to meet the set target because AI can take over certain roles of ICT workers."

Stagnating growth of ICT workers
The latest figures from the Talent Monitor show that the ICT labor force in the Netherlands will number approximately 583,000 by the third quarter of 2024. This represents 6 percent of the total employed labor force. For the development of the ICT labor force until 2030, the report outlines four possible future scenarios. The most optimistic case involves explosive growth, with the number of ICT workers increasing exponentially to 8.2 percent of the labor force, or 862,000 people. A more realistic prospect is linear growth to 783,000 ICT professionals (7.4 percent). Under a scenario of stabilization, the number of ICT professionals grows slightly to 628,000. Even a scenario of contraction to 452,000 ICT professionals (4.3 percent) is considered realistic by the researchers.

Geert-Jan Waasdorp, director and founder of Intelligence Group, explains, "Since 2022, the growth in the number of ICT workers has virtually come to a halt, and towards 2030 stabilization seems most likely. This is partly due to a structural tightness in the labor market, which makes it difficult to retrain lateral entrants to meet the growing demand. In addition, other sectors such as healthcare, education and engineering have competitive demand for workers."

Can AI mitigate the consequences?
The stagnant growth in the number of IT workers could have major negative consequences for the digital transition in the Netherlands, and thus for labor productivity. Artificial intelligence (AI) may offer relief. Large companies such as Google and Amazon point out that an increasing portion of their software development is being filled by AI. Marion van Happen, CEO at HeadFirst Group, says: "If the AI trend continues - and that expectation is real - the demand for developers in particular will eventually change. In the Netherlands, AI adoption will be gradual, limiting the impact on the demand for ICT professionals until 2025. This does mean that we do not need to reach the goal of 1 million ICT professionals in 2030 to successfully realize the digital transition. At the same time, it remains necessary to encourage as much growth in the ICT workforce as possible, because AI cannot completely replace the demand for ICT workers."

The full report is available for download at headfirst.group.