Cabinet goal unachievable: no 1 million ICT workers by 2030
While the government is aiming for one million ICT workers in the Netherlands by 2030, new research by labor market data specialist Intelligence Group and HR-tech service provider HeadFirst Group suggests that this goal is far out of reach. Even in a scenario of explosive growth, the Netherlands would have a maximum of 862,000 ICT workers by 2030. In more likely scenarios, the number is much lower still: between 628,000 and 783,000. Marion van Happen, CEO at HeadFirst Group nuances, "We don't have to meet the set target because AI can take over certain roles of ICT workers."
Stagnating growth of ICT workers
The latest figures from the Talent Monitor show that the ICT labor force in the Netherlands will number approximately 583,000 by the third quarter of 2024. This represents 6 percent of the total employed labor force. For the development of the ICT labor force until 2030, the report outlines four possible future scenarios. The most optimistic case involves explosive growth, with the number of ICT workers increasing exponentially to 8.2 percent of the labor force, or 862,000 people. A more realistic prospect is linear growth to 783,000 ICT professionals (7.4 percent). Under a scenario of stabilization, the number of ICT professionals grows slightly to 628,000. Even a scenario of contraction to 452,000 ICT professionals (4.3 percent) is considered realistic by the researchers.
Geert-Jan Waasdorp, director and founder of Intelligence Group, explains, "Since 2022, the growth in the number of ICT workers has virtually come to a halt, and towards 2030 stabilization seems most likely. This is partly due to a structural tightness in the labor market, which makes it difficult to retrain lateral entrants to meet the growing demand. In addition, other sectors such as healthcare, education and engineering have competitive demand for workers."
Can AI mitigate the consequences?
The stagnant growth in the number of IT workers could have major negative consequences for the digital transition in the Netherlands, and thus for labor productivity. Artificial intelligence (AI) may offer relief. Large companies such as Google and Amazon point out that an increasing portion of their software development is being filled by AI. Marion van Happen, CEO at HeadFirst Group, says: "If the AI trend continues - and that expectation is real - the demand for developers in particular will eventually change. In the Netherlands, AI adoption will be gradual, limiting the impact on the demand for ICT professionals until 2025. This does mean that we do not need to reach the goal of 1 million ICT professionals in 2030 to successfully realize the digital transition. At the same time, it remains necessary to encourage as much growth in the ICT workforce as possible, because AI cannot completely replace the demand for ICT workers."
The full report is available for download at headfirst.group.
Talent Monitor | ICT labor market in figures 2024 - 2025
ICT labor market in figures 2024 - 2025
Since the 1990s, ICT professionals have been at the forefront of the labor market. From introducing work-life balance to pioneering online platforms such as LinkedIn, ICT professionals have always been at the forefront of labor market innovations. Now the sector is in a critical transition phase that could affect not only the ICT market itself, but the broader labor market. Find out what this means for employers, employees and (self-employed) ICT professionals.
Cabinet goal unachievable: no 1 million ICT workers by 2030
While the government is aiming for one million ICT workers in the Netherlands by 2030, new research by labor market data specialist Intelligence Group and HR-tech service provider HeadFirst Group suggests that this goal is far out of reach. Even in a scenario of explosive growth, the Netherlands would have a maximum of 862,000 ICT workers by 2030. In more likely scenarios, the number is much lower still: between 628,000 and 783,000. Marion van Happen, CEO at HeadFirst Group nuances, "We don't have to meet the set target because AI can take over certain roles of ICT workers."
What will you learn from this report?
In this detailed Talent Monitor, we chart current trends in the ICT labor market:
- How the long-term growth in the number of ICT workers is slowing down and the role of AI in this change.
- The high employment rate of ICT workers, both salaried and self-employed.
- Declining Demand: The declining demand for ICT workers and how this affects recruitment strategies.
- What employers are doing differently now to attract ICT workers, including the impact of the DBA law.
- How specific ICT skills are key to both the current and future job market.
- What rising rates mean for freelancers in the industry.
- As AI and globalization change norms, what can we expect from industry dynamics?
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Successful fourth edition of the Labor Market Gateway
On Tuesday, October 15, members of parliament, journalists, civil servants and experts gathered again in Nieuwspoort for the fourth edition of the Labor Market Gate. This time the topic on the agenda was 'the connection between education and the labor market'. Although the subject is of great importance to employers and educational institutions, it is not yet high on the political agenda. All the more reason to exchange views with all stakeholders.
Lifelong development
"We really need to accelerate on the Lifelong Development dossier," stated ROC Mondriaan board chairman Hans Schutte. Led by Hans Biesheuvel, former chairman of ONL for Entrepreneurs, Schutte entered into a conversation with Maurice Limmen, chairman of the Association of Universities of Applied Sciences. Two gentlemen with a clear vision on the issue and a rich career in the field of education. Limmen came with strong words towards the cabinet: "I call the education plans from the coalition agreement worrying. What strikes me is a lack of notion of retraining and upskilling from one sector to another, a vision on this is completely lacking."
Especially in professions where labor is in high demand - such as engineering, healthcare and ICT - it appears that there are too few qualified people to meet this demand. This problem is exacerbated by technological change and an aging workforce. All in all, this is putting increasing pressure on these sectors.
Educational institutions come along with difficulty
Long-term study penalty and labor shortages
Do you have questions about the Labor Market Gateway? Our experts are ready for you - leave your details and we'll get back to you.
Questions about this? Please contact us.
Sem Overduin
Public Policy & Affairs Manager
Sem.Overduin@headfirst.nl
Oifik Youssefi
Public Affairs Officer
Oifik.Youssefi@headfirst.nl
Maaike van Driel
Head of Legal
Maaike.vanDriel@headfirst.group
Thomas ten Veldhuijs
Senior Legal Counsel
Thomas.tenVeldhuijs@headfirst.nl
Central government launches public campaign to tackle false self-employment
As of Jan. 1, 2025, the Tax Administration's enforcement moratorium will expire. From then on, companies and organizations that hire self-employed workers when in fact they are employed risk an additional tax assessment or fine. As part of the lifting of the enforcement moratorium, the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment has launched a public campaign. The campaign is aimed at clarifying the rules around labor relations, with the goal of helping clients and contractors understand when someone is self-employed and when employment is involved.
Central to the campaign is a new website, on which clients and self-employed people can find information and tools. An important part of this is the so-called "choice tool." This tool consists of ten questions that help self-employed people determine whether they are actually working on an assignment as a self-employed person or whether there are still many elements that belong to employment. The selection tool, however, does not give a binding judgment and offers advice to start a conversation about the right contract. The website also lists 10 characteristics that indicate self-employment and 10 that fit with being an employee. For example, it looks at whether a self-employed person bears commercial risk, makes their own investments and decides how the work is done. Characteristics of salaried employment include structural work within an organization, fixed working hours and a commitment to effort. What is important here is that no single characteristic is decisive; all factors must be considered in conjunction, which sometimes makes the assessment complex.
The website does not provide any new insights. The examples of ten concrete situations being worked out were already found in the Explanatory Memorandum of the draft law Verduidelijking Beoordeling Arbeidsrelaties en Rechtsvermonden (VBAR). Furthermore, the webpage refers to the web module, but this web module does not take into account the viewpoints and elements from the Deliveroo judgment. In response to the public campaign and the website, MP Thierry Aartsen (VVD) asked written questions to the ministers Van Hijum and Idsinga.
We advise and support our clients and independent professionals on the basis of a framework based on the viewpoints and elements arising from the Deliveroo judgment. In consultation with both parties, we look for an appropriate solution, which may differ per situation. If you would like to know more about this, please contact us.
DGA construction not a solution to false self-employment
With the lifting of the enforcement moratorium on Jan. 1, 2025, many self-employed workers have questions, "Can I continue my current assignment? Can I continue to work for the same client(s)?" With changing legislation and misleading information in the media, there is much confusion, especially about how to avoid "false self-employed" status. An often mentioned solution is to set up a limited liability company and appoint yourself as a DGA, but this is a misconception. In this article, we explain the real situation.
Other rates
The tax authorities do not recognize the term 'zzp'; for tax purposes, a self-employed person without staff is seen as a sole proprietorship or a private limited company (bv). The report 'Grip op het zzp-dossier', conducted by knowledge platform ZiPconomy on behalf of HeadFirst Group and ONL voor Ondernemers, shows that in 2023 one in ten zzp'ers had a bv, while nine in ten had a sole proprietorship. With a sole proprietorship, the entrepreneur is personally liable for debts of the company.
With a PLC, this liability basically remains with the PLC itself and not with the directors or shareholders. Setting up a PLC can also have tax advantages, because different tax rates apply. Whereas with a sole proprietorship you pay income tax in box 1, with a PLC you pay tax in box 2. It is agreed, however, that these tax benefits only become relevant at a minimum annual profit of €100,000 to €200,000.
Mock security
Professionals and consultants regularly advise self-employed people on social media to set up a private limited company and appoint themselves as director and major shareholder. This would protect them from the risks of false self-employment. However, the Inland Revenue assesses the nature of the employment relationship, regardless of the legal form.
Practice rather than legal form
The fact that a person works through a private limited company does not automatically mean that there can be no false self-employment. It ultimately revolves around the "facts and circumstances in the performance of the work. The practical situation is leading, making it important to actually behave as an independent contractor.
The Deliveroo ruling
In the Deliveroo ruling, the Supreme Court listed ten important points for determining whether there is a true employment contract. These must always be considered in conjunction; there is no fixed order or point that outweighs the others. What matters is the overall picture of all the facts and circumstances. Together, they give a good picture of the working relationship and determine whether an employment contract exists.
At HeadFirst Group we advise and support our clients and independent professionals on the basis of a framework based on the points of the Deliveroo judgment. In consultation with both parties, we look for an appropriate solution, which can differ per situation.
Laws and regulations are constantly changing. Find out how this affects your external hiring. Our experts are ready for you - leave your details and we'll get back to you.
Questions about this? Please contact us.
Sem Overduin
Public Policy & Affairs Manager
Sem.Overduin@headfirst.nl
Oifik Youssefi
Public Affairs Officer
Oifik.Youssefi@headfirst.nl
Maaike van Driel
Head of Legal
Maaike.vanDriel@headfirst.group
Thomas ten Veldhuijs
Senior Legal Counsel
Thomas.tenVeldhuijs@headfirst.nl
Emancipation drives number of female self-employed in Europe
After steady growth over the past 15 years, one in three self-employed people in Europe are now women. This growth goes hand in hand with increasing gender equality in Europe. In the Netherlands, 37.8 percent of self-employed people are women, which puts us in 11th place in Europe. Research for the latest Talent Monitor, conducted by labor market specialist Intelligence Group and HR-tech service provider HeadFirst Group, shows that the further emancipation has progressed in a country, the more women choose self-employment.
Rise of female self-employed workers
An extensive analysis of data since 2010, shows a very strong relationship between emancipation and the proportion of female self-employed workers in Europe. By linking the data to the World Economic Forum's Gender Gap Index (GGI), which measures gender inequality, a clear correlation was found. In countries with smaller gender gaps, the percentage of female self-employed workers is significantly higher, it can be argued. In other words, increasing gender equality encourages entrepreneurship among women. This is a very good trend and at the same time emphasizes the need to continue promoting equal opportunities as an engine for economic and social growth," said Marion van Happen, CEO of HeadFirst Group.
By 2024, 36 percent of self-employed workers in the European Union (EU-27) will be women, up from 34 percent in 2010. As of this year, Luxembourg is the first European country where more than half of the self-employed are women (50.7 percent). Latvia follows with almost an equal share (49.8 percent), while countries such as Ireland (26.8 percent) and Romania (26.9 percent) lag far behind. In the Netherlands, the percentage is 37.8, slightly higher than in Belgium (36.6 percent).
Fewer hours, more women
The study also shows that in countries where self-employed workers work fewer hours per week on average, the proportion of female self-employed workers tends to be higher. On the contrary, in countries where the difference in hours worked between men and women as self-employed workers is small, we see relatively fewer female self-employed workers. "Being self-employed offers women an attractive form of work because it allows them to combine care responsibilities with flexibility and a better work-life balance. The possibility to work fewer hours or achieve other ambitions as a self-employed worker contributes to their autonomy and strengthens women's emancipation," said Geert-Jan Waasdorp, director and founder of Intelligence Group.
In Europe, men work an average of 40.9 hours per week as self-employed, while women work an average of 34.5 hours. Greek self-employed workers work the most hours (43.4 hours), followed by Spanish self-employed workers (41.7 hours). Luxembourg self-employed workers make the fewest hours (30.8 hours), followed by Estonian self-employed workers (31.9 hours). In the Netherlands, the average is 33.6 hours, well below the European average.
The full report is available for download at headfirst.group.
Talent Monitor | European self-employed under the microscope: Trends, growth & diversity
European self-employed under the microscope: Trends, growth & diversity
The European labor market is in flux. With nearly 20 million self-employed spread across several countries, there are big differences in how this group develops. The Netherlands leads the way with unique trends in flexible work, but how do we compare to the rest of Europe?
The Talent Monitor offers an in-depth analysis of the European self-employed market, sharing insights you shouldn't miss.
Increasing number of self-employed people under 30 in the Netherlands, Belgian numbers actually decreasing
Over the past five years, the number of self-employed people under 30 in the Netherlands has increased significantly, accounting for 12.7 percent of the total number of self-employed people in our country. This places the Netherlands among the top European countries, along with countries such as Malta, Slovakia and Lithuania. In contrast to the Netherlands, Belgium - at almost 4 percent - has actually seen a decline in the number of young self-employed people. This is shown in the most recent Talent Monitor, a joint study by labor market data specialist Intelligence Group and HR-tech service provider HeadFirst Group.
What can you expect in this report?
- A unique comparison between the Dutch labor market and the rest of Europe.
- Find out why older and highly educated self-employed people dominate, and why younger people are less likely to become self-employed.
- Analysis of the growing role of women in the self-employed market and its link to emancipation.
Who should read this report?
- Legislators: To place the Dutch labor market in a broader European perspective.
- Clients with international ambitions: To develop an effective European recruitment strategy.
- Zzp'ers: To understand how unique the Dutch zzp is compared to other European countries.
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By downloading the Talent Monitor, you agree that your data will be shared with co-initiator Intelligence Group.
Other reports...
Talent Monitor: The convergence of fixed and flex
We compile quarterly - based on recruitment data from...
Talent Monitor: Fixed is getting more mobile and flex is getting more sustainable
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Talent Monitor: Rate development professionals 2023
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Increasing number of self-employed people under 30 in the Netherlands, Belgian numbers actually decreasing
Over the past five years, the number of self-employed people under 30 in the Netherlands has increased significantly, accounting for 12.7 percent of the total number of self-employed people in our country. This places the Netherlands among the top European countries, along with countries such as Malta, Slovakia and Lithuania. In contrast to the Netherlands, Belgium - at almost 4 percent - has actually seen a decline in the number of young self-employed people. This is shown in the most recent Talent Monitor, a joint study by labor market data specialist Intelligence Group and HR-tech service provider HeadFirst Group.
Older people dominate self-employed market in Europe
In the European Union (EU-27), nearly one-third of self-employed workers are 55 or older (31.7 percent). This group is more than three times larger than the group under 30. The percentage of over-55s is especially large in Sweden (55.1 percent), Germany (47.5 percent) and Ireland (46.9 percent). Geert-Jan Waasdorp, director and founder of Intelligence Group, explains, "In these countries, where traditional permanent jobs are often associated with high status, being self-employed may be a final career step or a way to make room for a new generation. This trend is partly explained by an aging population, but cultural factors also play a role."
Over the past decade, the number of 55-plus self-employed has grown 1.4 percent annually. The growth of self-employed people under the age of 30 was slightly faster in the last five years: 1.7 percent annually. At 0.7 percent, the increase in the Netherlands was below that average. During this period, the number of young self-employed people declined rapidly in Belgium (-3.8 percent). A decrease was also visible in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia, there even by more than 6 percent. The highest percentage of young self-employed can be found in Malta (14.7 percent), followed by Slovakia, Lithuania, Iceland and the Netherlands (12.7 percent). Despite the increase, the number of young people opting for self-employment in Europe remains relatively small relative to the total labor force.
Stable self-employed market in Europe
Europe currently has nearly 20 million self-employed workers, representing 8.8 percent of the total labor force. Whereas the Dutch self-employed market has been growing by at least 1.4 percent for years, the share of self-employed in Europe remains fairly stable. Countries such as Hungary and Switzerland have seen significant growth, while countries such as Romania and Germany have seen a decline in the number of self-employed. Greece has the highest percentage of self-employed, with nearly 18 percent of the labor force. Norway has the lowest percentage, with only 3.8 percent. Differences in percentages include cultural preferences for self-employment and tax schemes that encourage entrepreneurship in certain countries.
Marion van Happen, CEO of HeadFirst Group, says: "These figures confirm that the Dutch labor market has a unique position within Europe. This insight helps international clients who want to fine-tune their recruitment strategies and freelancers who want to gain insight into the unique characteristics of their field in the Netherlands compared to other European countries. But also for policymakers and politicians to put the labor market in a broader European perspective, which we also recently mappedspecifically for zzp legislation."
The full report is available for download at headfirst.group.
Tighter, frugal, fast: what will change for the self-employed in 2025?
Anyone who listened to the Speech from the Throne live will undoubtedly have noticed King Willem-Alexander's length and tone. For example, he summarized the cabinet plans for 2025 as "strict, austere and fast. The labor market was also mentioned: the cabinet wants to make efforts to solve the shortage in various ways. Wage employment must become more attractive and everyone must have the opportunity for lifelong development through retraining and further education. But what about the self-employed? We list the most important plans and changes.
Taxes for the self-employed
Self-employed people will pay slightly more tax on average in 2025 if their profits remain the same. This is due to a number of changes in taxes. For example, the self-employment deduction will be further reduced to €2,470 per year in 2025. In 2024, this was the self-employment deduction was still €3,750. Reducing the self-employment deduction is intended to ensure a fiscally level playing field between the self-employed and employees.
Furthermore, as an entrepreneur in the income tax, you are entitled to the SME profit exemption. This exempts part of your profits from income tax. The plan was to reduce the exemption from 2025 to 12.07% (previously this percentage was 13.31). Nevertheless, the percentage in 2025 drops slightly less, to 12.7%.
These adjustments ensure that entrepreneurs have to pay taxes on a larger portion of their profits. At the same time, the cabinet is trying to support low incomes by, for example, increasing the rent allowance and the child-related budget.
Box 1: Income from employment, benefits and home ownership
The classification of Box 1 will be changed to three brackets instead of two. The distribution of the brackets and percentages is as follows:
- On income up to €38,441, you will pay 35.82% tax, which is lower than in 2024.
- On income between €38,441 and €76,817 you will pay 37.48%, a slight increase from 2024.
- For income above €76,817, the rate remains 49.5%.
Lower incomes benefit from the lower rate in the first bracket, while higher incomes pay more tax due to the higher rate in the second bracket.
Box 2: Income from stock ownership
Are you operating in a private limited company? If so, the bv must pay corporate income tax each year. Do you have more than 5 percent of the shares and also work in this bv? Then you are a director-large shareholder (DGA). As a DGA, you face taxation in box 2 of the income tax. In 2025, the following changes will be made:
- On dividends up to €67,804, you pay 24.5%, equal to 2024.
- On dividends above €67,804, the rate drops from 33% to 31%.
If the rate in Box 2 goes down in 2025, it may be more attractive for entrepreneurs to wait to pay dividends.
Box 3: Income from savings and investments
Do you have savings or investments? Then you will pay no tax on your assets up to €57,684 in 2025. Do you have more assets? Then, just like this year, you will pay 36 percent tax on the return the tax authorities expect you to make in 2025. We call this a notional return.
No deductibility of donations in corporate taxes
As of Jan. 1, 2025, donations to charities are no longer deductible from corporate income tax (vpb). This applies to donations to non-profit organizations (ANBIs) or support foundations SBBI. Gifts by a company to an ANBI at the request of a shareholder with a substantial interest are considered a profit distribution, on which income tax (box 2) and dividend tax must be paid.
Emission-free cars: discount on road tax
The government is encouraging the switch to emission-free cars with rebates on motor vehicle tax (mrb) until 2029. The scheme is as follows:
- From 2026 to 2029, a 25% discount applies;
- Starting in 2030, this discount will expire.
Evaluation of tax entrepreneurial schemes
Over the past six months, an evaluation of several tax entrepreneurship schemes, such as the self-employment deduction and SME profit exemption, has been conducted. Research firms SEO and Dialogic, commissioned by the Ministries of Finance and Economic Affairs, concluded that these schemes have limited effectiveness in stimulating entrepreneurship and social benefits. While no firm conclusions on effectiveness could be drawn, they found that the cost of the schemes is relatively high relative to their effectiveness. This raises questions about possible reforms of these schemes.
Status of legislative proposals
The above cabinet plans are part of the 2025 Tax Plan. The measures are contained in several bills. The Lower and Upper Houses must still approve the bills before the plans can take effect. They will vote on the Tax Plan 2025 in November and December.
Quarter of zzp'ers are already missing out on orders due to approaching enforcement of false self-employment
Highly educated self-employed people expect it to become increasingly difficult to find assignments and already experience that they miss out on assignments due to the approaching enforcement on false self-employment. This is evident from research by HR-tech service provider HeadFirst Group, to which 1,187 self-employed workers shared their experiences and opinions. On Thursday, September 12, a zzp-debate is planned in the Lower House, in which enforcement on false self-employment is an important item on the agenda.
The Cabinet sent a letter to the House of Representatives on Friday, Sept. 6, announcing, among other things, that it intends not to impose penalty fines on principals for the first year. Marion van Happen, CEO of HeadFirst Group, calls this a small step in the right direction: "Just like us, the government notices that clients - both in the profit and non-profit sector - are becoming more cautious in hiring self-employed workers and is taking the first measures to that end. It is positive that they are picking up these signals, taking them seriously and taking action on them, but this is still insufficient to restore and maintain peace in the labor market. We therefore recommend retaining the instrument 'indications' after January 1, 2025, so that client and contractor have time to adjust the employment relationship after advice from the Tax Office."
Reticence among clients
The survey found that about 25 percent of highly educated self-employed workers lost one or more assignments in the run-up to the lifting of the enforcement moratorium. In addition, 57 percent expect it to become more difficult to find assignments in the future due to stricter enforcement.
Van Happen says: "This confirms that clients are becoming more cautious in hiring self-employed workers. We experience in practice that clients have difficulty in properly assessing when a self-employed person may be hired. This leads to risk-averse behavior and fewer assignments for self-employed workers. That should not be the side effect of enforcement on false self-employment."
Awareness and need for greater clarity
The survey also shows that the 65 percent of respondents are (very) aware of the lifting of the enforcement moratorium. At the same time, in their open-ended responses, hundreds of respondents expressed a need for more consistent and specific information that would help them properly prepare for these changes. "It is now up to the parties involved to provide clear information and properly inform both principals and self-employed workers. Fortunately, the September 6 parliamentary letter shows that the cabinet recognizes the importance of clear communication and that a government-wide public campaign is in preparation, to be launched at the end of September. As a leading market party, we will also take our role in communication," Van Happen concludes.